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Comments on the Future
of VORSIM - Vernon Oley Roningen
Support: VORSIM has evolved over the years as its
host, the Microsoft Excel spreadsheet, has evolved. It also has evolved because of the need to
address new kinds of modeling problems.
The current version, VORSIM 15, uses Excel 2013 or 2016 and is better
and more powerful than earlier versions (1-14).
I will provide support for VORSIM 15 through Sept. 2018 but no longer for
VORSIM versions 14 or earlier. To deal
with a model problem in earlier versions such as 14, it is easier to convert
the model to version 15 and work with it there.
VORSIM 15 should be compatible with newer versions of Excel to come, but
time will tell.
Upgrades: There has never been an upgrade policy for
VORSIM since an upgrade is technically difficult in VBA and the cost of the
newer VORSIM version has been low. It is
much cheaper for you to buy the new version of VORSIM than what I would have to
charge for a manual upgrade. If you find
an error in VORSIM 15 you purchase, I will send an updated version if I can
correct the error.
VORSIM website: As Excel and VORSIM have evolved over time,
so has the VORSIM website. Some website
and User’s Guide pages have not changed much while others have been completely
done. Many pages have been partly
revised and may contain old and new VORSIM features.
Spreadsheet
modeling: Models are created in Excel
using its equation and “Visual Basic for Applications (VBA)” capability. One can manually build models in Excel, but
as they become larger, it becomes difficult to keep track of variables and
data. VORSIM software imposes some Excel
based structural regularity on the model-building process. The result is that you always know exactly
where your data and equations are located and the variable nomenclature
reflects this model structure. A VORSIM
model structure follows the spreadsheet structure using workbooks and sheets in
workbooks. So VORSIM changes a modeling
effort to a structured one rather than an ad hoc creation of variables and
equations in spreadsheets. In addition,
VORSIM makes it relatively easy to use complex spreadsheet features such a
pivot tables for examining model solutions.
Once created, complex equations can be modified and re-written with the
click of a button rather than having to be dealt with manually. The spirit of VORSIM is that tedious spreadsheet
and workbook tasks which take a lot time manually, have been automated.
Advantages: VORSIM has been mainly used for partial
equilibrium modeling around available data sources. The strength of VORSIM lies in its ability to
help organize a model and its data and to quickly repeat many model building
operations. It is no exaggeration that
most VORSIM models I have built have been reconstructed from scratch many times
before they are acceptable. However this
is easy because data and equations once created and backed up, can be restored
to a revised model with the click of a button.
VORSIM simplifies the mechanics of model building leaving more for the
model builder to think about the workings of their model. Of course a good modeling system such as
VORSIM cannot fix an unstable or non-logical model; building a useful model
that works is the task of the model builder in any modeling system. Since VORSIM operates within the Excel
spreadsheet, all of the spreadsheet tools and capabilities are available to the
modeler along with the VORSIM software.
Criticisms: Critics have said that VORSIM models are too
ad hoc or are not adequate because they are not general equilibrium. While these criticisms may be true, an
understandable VORSIM-built model is very useful for meeting analytical
deadlines for a problem. A useful model
is a) one that works, b) one that the builder understands, and c) one that can
be clearly explained to others and d) one that delivers results to meet a
deadline. Furthermore the most
important product of a VORSIM model-building effort is the education of the
builder when he is forced to test his hunches against real data and rational equation
structures. General equilibrium models
are costly but useful for what they are and for the sector breakdown that they
contain. But tacking on problems to a
fixed sector CGE model also can be an ad hoc procedure. The Excel spreadsheet is a very good
analytical tool which has become more complex over time. VORSIM was created to simplify the use of
Excel complexities for model-building, but over the years, VORSIM has also
necessarily become more complex. However
the core programs of VORSIM have remained relatively constant over time.
The Future: VORSIM version 15 for Excel 2013 is as
advanced as it can be for now. Although VORSIM
version 15 still may still have some bugs in seldom-used routines, the key
routines to build and simulate models have been extensively tested are the best
ever.
VORSIM as a Business: VORSIM as a software and consulting business
closed as of December 31, 2017. However,
the VORSIM website will be maintained through September 2018 as a courtesy to
existing users. If someone wants to
purchase the business, what does it consist of?
A U.S. trademarked name (VORSIM), U.S. patented software (VORSIM
modeling software), and sample models (trademarks in the EU and other countries
have or will expire soon). For someone
to use VORSIM in a consulting business requires VORSIM model-building
experience. Since my VORSIM business is
closed, further development will not be done by me. Offers to buy the VORSIM software (unlocked
for further development) will be considered with a minimum offer of
$5,000. Contact Vernon Roningen for
further information or questions.